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WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

0-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
@
Brady Pretzlaff
KEY GAME

Brady Pretzlaff

#45 | Linebacker
Player
Ryan Millmore None-None
Brady Pretzlaff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W MICHIGAN
100%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
0%
W MICHIGAN --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (Michigan State)
W MichiganWMU (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Michigan Cover

20.4%

Michigan St Cover

79.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSU -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

WMU By 1-6 points

9.6%

WMU By 7-13 points

6.2%

MSU By 1-6 points

14.4%

MSU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
10.39
WESTERN MICHIGAN
21.95
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
17
WESTERN MICHIGAN
38
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
C
Sim Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 WMU @ MSU 6 - 23
Sep 2, 2022 WMU @ MSU 13 - 35
Sep 7, 2019 WMU @ MSU 17 - 51
Sep 9, 2017 WMU @ MSU 14 - 28
Sep 4, 2015 MSU @ WMU 37 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.8% more
Western Michigan: 155.2 vs Michigan State: 101.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.1% more
Western Michigan: 329.2 vs Michigan State: 289.5
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Western Michigan: 19.1 vs Michigan State: 17.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 10.4 6
MSU Score 22.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 19.1 20.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 101.2 / 155.2 181.0 / 29.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 289.5 / 329.2 336.0 / 217.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
WMU
MSU
WMU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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