Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Baylor AUB @ BAY

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

0-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 8:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

0-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Micah Gifford
KEY GAME

Micah Gifford

#24 | Safety
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Micah Gifford None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
100%
📊
BAYLOR
0%
AUBURN --
BAYLOR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
70.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Baylor)
AuburnAUB (-3.5) 0 BaylorBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

32.0%

Baylor Cover

68.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAY -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

AUB By 1-6 points

13.2%

AUB By 7-13 points

10.0%

BAY By 1-6 points

16.6%

BAY By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
31.8
AUBURN
38.35
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
24
AUBURN
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Baylor Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Baylor Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Baylor (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.6
C
Sim Baylor (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 70.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 BAY @ AUB 16 - 17
Aug 29, 2025 AUB @ BAY 38 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +24.0% more
Baylor: 27.8 vs Auburn: 22.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
Baylor: 495.7 vs Auburn: 425.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Baylor: 167.8 vs Auburn: 148.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Baylor: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 31.8 38
BAY Score 38.4 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.8 / 22.4 23.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 167.8 / 148.7 64.0 / 307.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 495.7 / 425.8 483.0 / 415.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
AUB
BAY
AUB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tennessee's Defense Shows Grit in Win Over Auburn, Fueling SEC H…
si 3 days, 5 hours ago
AP Voters Split on Missouri-Florida After Tigers' Blowout Win
dailygazette 3 days, 12 hours ago
Auburn Fans Call for Offensive Coordinator's Job After Frustrati…
si 4 days ago
Miami vs Clemson: Unbeaten Hurricanes Visit Tigers in ACC Showdo…
yahoo 4 days, 23 hours ago
ESPN's Bill Connelly Places Upset Alert on Florida Gators' Week …
yahoo 6 days, 5 hours ago