Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UNLV @ Sam Houston UNLV @ SHSU

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

1-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 9:30 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Quandarius Keyes
KEY GAME

Quandarius Keyes

#5 | Defensive Back
@
Darien Jackson
KEY GAME

Darien Jackson

#10 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Quandarius Keyes None-None
Darien Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
100%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
0%
UNLV --
SAM HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Sam Houston)
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

44.4%

Sam Houston Cover

55.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SHSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

UNLV By 1-6 points

15.7%

UNLV By 7-13 points

13.8%

SHSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.11
UNLV
26.09
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
24
UNLV
27
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sam Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Sam Houston Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sam Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Sam Houston (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 UNLV @ SHSU 38 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.0% more
Sam Houston: 1.0 vs UNLV: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.0% more
UNLV: 243.6 vs Sam Houston: 141.2
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
UNLV: 423.4 vs Sam Houston: 328.9
First Downs (L5) +21.6% more
UNLV: 20.2 vs Sam Houston: 15.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 24.1 38
SHSU Score 26.1 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 20.2 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 141.2 / 243.6 145.0 / 155.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.08 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 328.9 / 423.4 332.0 / 404.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
UNLV
SHSU
UNLV
ML
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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