Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ San José St CMU @ SJSU

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

0-0  |  Road

16
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 10:30 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

0-0  |  Home

14
Key Game
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Declan Duley None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
100%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
C MICHIGAN --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San José State)
C MichiganCMU (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

45.7%

San José St Cover

54.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

CMU By 1-6 points

15.9%

CMU By 7-13 points

14.2%

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

SJSU By 7-13 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.68
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
17.18
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
31
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San José St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
C
Sim San José St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 CMU @ SJSU 16 - 14
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +54.5% more
San José State: 24.2 vs Central Michigan: 15.7
Total Yards (L5) +54.3% more
San José State: 397.2 vs Central Michigan: 257.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.6% more
Central Michigan: 141.1 vs San José State: 95.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 15.7 16
SJSU Score 17.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 15.7 19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 95.1 / 141.1 75.0 / 236.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 397.2 / 257.4 383.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
CMU
SJSU
CMU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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