Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lafayette @ Bowling Green LAF @ BGSU

LAFAYETTE

LAFAYETTELAF

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

0-0  |  Home

26
Key Game
Christian Bush
KEY GAME

Christian Bush

#38 | Place kicker
@
Eriq George
KEY GAME

Eriq George

#5 | Defensive End
Player
Christian Bush None-None
Eriq George None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LAFAYETTE
100%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
0%
LAFAYETTE --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Bowling Green)
LafayetteLAF (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lafayette Cover

46.8%

Bowling Green Cover

53.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

LAF By 1-6 points

16.1%

LAF By 7-13 points

14.5%

BGSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

BGSU By 7-13 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
18.94
LAFAYETTE
20.06
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
13
LAFAYETTE
38
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Bowling Green Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
C
Sim Bowling Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 LAF @ BGSU 7 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +87.2% more
Bowling Green: 385.8 vs Lafayette: 206.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +67.3% more
Bowling Green: 96.0 vs Lafayette: 57.4
First Downs (L5) +62.5% more
Bowling Green: 19.4 vs Lafayette: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +40.1% more
Lafayette: 1.5 vs Bowling Green: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 18.9 7
BGSU Score 20.1 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 11.9 17.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 96.0 / 57.4 157.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 385.8 / 206.1 266.0 / 177.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
--
BGSU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
--
BGSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
--
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
LAF
BGSU
LAF
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
TTL
100% 5-0
0% 0-1
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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