ST FRANCIS PA
RED FLASHSFPA
0-0 | Road
0
UL MONROE
UL MONROEULM
0-0 | Home
29
Key Game
KEY GAME
Aidan Cirulli
#14 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Makenzie Ryan
#47 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Aidan Cirulli | None-None |
| Makenzie Ryan | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
UL MONROE
0%
RED FLASH
--
UL MONROE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
16.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.3
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.3 points (UL Monroe)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ULM -16.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
SFPA By 1-6 points
6.3%
SFPA By 7-13 points
3.5%
ULM By 1-6 points
11.3%
ULM By 7-13 points
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St Francis PA
0
ST FRANCIS PA
UL Monroe
16.28
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
St Francis PA
13
ST FRANCIS PA
UL Monroe
45
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
UL Monroe
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
UL Monroe
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UL Monroe (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.3
C
Sim
UL Monroe (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 16.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 28, 2025
SFPA @ ULM
0 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+65.5% more
UL Monroe: 177.6
vs
St Francis PA: 107.3
First Downs (L5)
+20.7% more
UL Monroe: 17.1
vs
St Francis PA: 14.2
Total Yards (L5)
+15.1% more
UL Monroe: 327.6
vs
St Francis PA: 284.7
Turnovers (L5)
+9.3% more
UL Monroe: 1.9
vs
St Francis PA: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score
0.0
0
ULM Score
16.3
29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.1 / 14.2
24.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards
177.6 / 107.3
311.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.3
0.42 / 0.17
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards
327.6 / 284.7
434.0 / 131.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 1.7
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
--
ULM
Advantage
3-9-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -15.3
ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
--
ULM
Advantage
4-8-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -15.3
ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
--
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
SFPA
ULM
SFPA
ML
80%
4-1
--
0-0
60%
3-2
--
0-0
ATS
20%
1-4
--
0-0
20%
1-4
--
0-0
TTL
80%
4-1
--
0-0
40%
2-3
--
0-0
