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JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

0-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 7:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

0-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
DJ Bell
KEY GAME

DJ Bell

#5 | Defensive Back
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
DJ Bell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
100%
📊
UCF
0%
JAX STATE --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
70.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (UCF)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

34.8%

UCF Cover

65.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

JXST By 1-6 points

13.9%

JXST By 7-13 points

10.9%

UCF By 1-6 points

16.8%

UCF By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32.34
JACKSONVILLE STATE
37.8
UCF
Simulated Score
17
JACKSONVILLE STATE
38
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCF Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCF Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
C
Sim UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 70.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 JXST @ UCF 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +55.4% more
UCF: 1.7 vs Jacksonville State: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +11.2% more
UCF: 22.9 vs Jacksonville State: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 32.3 10
UCF Score 37.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 20.6 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 199.1 / 215.2 108.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 403.2 / 432.1 422.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
JXST
UCF
JXST
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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