Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UT Martin @ Oklahoma St UTM @ OKST

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

0-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Zamaryion Farmer-McCray
KEY GAME

Zamaryion Farmer-McCray

#4 | Safety
@
Iman Oates
KEY GAME

Iman Oates

#99 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Zamaryion Farmer-McCray None-None
Iman Oates None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UT MARTIN
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
UT MARTIN --
OKLAHOMA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
UT MARTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (UT Martin)
UT MartinUTM (-3.5) 0 Oklahoma StOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UT Martin Cover

74.3%

Oklahoma St Cover

25.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTM -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTM)

UTM By 1-6 points

15.7%

UTM By 7-13 points

19.7%

OKST By 1-6 points

11.4%

OKST By 7-13 points

7.9%

AI Model Projected Score
23.09
UT MARTIN
13.97
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
7
UT MARTIN
48
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UT Martin Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UT Martin (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.1
C
Sim Oklahoma St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 UTM @ OKST 7 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +166.7% more
Oklahoma State: 2.7 vs UT Martin: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Oklahoma State: 19.9 vs UT Martin: 14.7
Total Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Oklahoma State: 322.4 vs UT Martin: 253.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Oklahoma State: 111.7 vs UT Martin: 102.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 23.1 7
OKST Score 14.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 14.7 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 111.7 / 102.1 127.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 322.4 / 253.4 359.0 / 225.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
--
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
--
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
--
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
UTM
OKST
UTM
ML
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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