Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Arkansas @ Missouri CARK @ MIZ

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

C ARKANSASCARK

0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

0-0  |  Home

61
Key Game
Ty Durham
KEY GAME

Ty Durham

#7 | Wide Receiver
@
Blake Craig
KEY GAME

Blake Craig

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Ty Durham None-None
Blake Craig None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C ARKANSAS
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
C ARKANSAS --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Missouri)
C ArkansasCARK (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Arkansas Cover

36.5%

Missouri Cover

63.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

CARK By 1-6 points

14.3%

CARK By 7-13 points

11.4%

MIZ By 1-6 points

16.9%

MIZ By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.49
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
27.31
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
10
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
45
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
C
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 CARK @ MIZ 6 - 61
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Missouri: 20.9 vs Central Arkansas: 18.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Missouri: 0.4 vs Central Arkansas: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +75.0% more
Central Arkansas: 1.4 vs Missouri: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CARK Score 22.5 6
MIZ Score 27.3 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 18.1 25.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 146.4 / 143.9 219.0 / 154.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 376.2 / 369.5 560.0 / 227.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
--
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
--
MIZ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
--
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
CARK
MIZ
CARK
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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