Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Minnesota BUFF @ MINN

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

0-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

0-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Cam Davis
KEY GAME

Cam Davis

#79 | Offensive Lineman
@
Emmanuel Karmo
KEY GAME

Emmanuel Karmo

#2 | Linebacker
Player
Cam Davis None-None
Emmanuel Karmo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
0%
📊
MINNESOTA
100%
BUFFALO --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
78.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

58.5%

Minnesota Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUFF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

17.0%

BUFF By 7-13 points

17.5%

MINN By 1-6 points

15.3%

MINN By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
40.7
BUFFALO
37.7
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
31
BUFFALO
17
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffalo Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Buffalo Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffalo (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Buffalo (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 78.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 BUFF @ MINN 10 - 23
Aug 31, 2017 BUFF @ MINN 7 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Buffalo: 203.8 vs Minnesota: 139.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Buffalo: 398.7 vs Minnesota: 357.8
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Minnesota: 1.1 vs Buffalo: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 40.7 10
MINN Score 37.7 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.1 27.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 139.4 / 203.8 153.0 / 44.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 357.8 / 398.7 443.0 / 151.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
BUFF
MINN
BUFF
ML
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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