Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SF Austin @ Houston SFA @ HOU

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

SF AUSTINSFA

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 8:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

0-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Jayvin Mayfield
KEY GAME

Jayvin Mayfield

#21 | Cornerback
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Jayvin Mayfield None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SF AUSTIN
100%
📊
HOUSTON
0%
SF AUSTIN --
HOUSTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Houston)
SF AustinSFA (-3.5) 0 HoustonHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SF Austin Cover

47.6%

Houston Cover

52.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

SFA By 1-6 points

16.2%

SFA By 7-13 points

14.7%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.07
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
17.93
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
10
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
45
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Houston (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
C
Sim Houston (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 SFA @ HOU 0 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +141.5% more
Houston: 3.1 vs Stephen F. Austin: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.7% more
Houston: 117.7 vs Stephen F. Austin: 83.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 17.1 0
HOU Score 17.9 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 15.8 18.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 117.7 / 83.0 191.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.41 / 0.19
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 268.2 / 267.7 343.0 / 144.0
Turnovers 3.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
--
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
--
HOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
--
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SFA
HOU
SFA
ML
100% 5-0
0% 0-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-1
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-1
80% 4-1
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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