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ALABAMA STATE

ALABAMA STALST

0-0  |  Road

42
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 8:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

0-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Andrew Abu-Akel
KEY GAME

Andrew Abu-Akel

#39 | Punter
@
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Andrew Abu-Akel None-None
Jonah Delange None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA ST
100%
📊
UAB
0%
ALABAMA ST --
UAB --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (UAB)
Alabama StALST (-3.5) 0 UABUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama St Cover

41.1%

UAB Cover

58.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UAB -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

ALST By 1-6 points

15.2%

ALST By 7-13 points

12.8%

UAB By 1-6 points

17.0%

UAB By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.96
ALABAMA STATE
22.1
UAB
Simulated Score
13
ALABAMA STATE
42
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UAB Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UAB Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UAB (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
C
Sim UAB (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 ALST @ UAB 42 - 52
Aug 29, 2019 ALST @ UAB 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +52.7% more
UAB: 405.3 vs Alabama State: 265.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.7% more
UAB: 127.7 vs Alabama State: 84.2
First Downs (L5) +50.0% more
UAB: 22.6 vs Alabama State: 15.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Alabama State: 2.2 vs UAB: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 19.0 42
UAB Score 22.1 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 15.1 24.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 127.7 / 84.2 273.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.57 / 0.87
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 405.3 / 265.4 520.0 / 514.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
--
UAB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
--
UAB Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
--
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ALST
UAB
ALST
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
50% 1-1
75% 3-1-1
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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