Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nebraska @ Cincinnati NEB @ CIN

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

0-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 9:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

0-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Kyle Cunanan None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEBRASKA
0%
📊
CINCINNATI
100%
NEBRASKA --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Nebraska)
NebraskaNEB (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nebraska Cover

51.3%

Cincinnati Cover

48.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NEB -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

NEB By 1-6 points

16.6%

NEB By 7-13 points

15.7%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.3%

CIN By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.77
NEBRASKA
17.32
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
20
NEBRASKA
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nebraska Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nebraska (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
C
Sim Cincinnati (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 NEB @ CIN 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.1% more
Cincinnati: 200.0 vs Nebraska: 136.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEB Score 17.8 20
CIN Score 17.3 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 21.5 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 200.0 / 136.0 202.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 380.3 / 358.1 271.0 / 353.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
CIN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
CIN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NEB
CIN
NEB
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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