Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stony Brook @ San Diego St STBK @ SDSU

STONY BROOK

STONY BROOKSTBK

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

0-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Michael Odell
KEY GAME

Michael Odell

#99 | Defensive Lineman
@
Dalesean Staley
KEY GAME

Dalesean Staley

#9 | Safety
Player
Michael Odell None-None
Dalesean Staley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STONY BROOK
0%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
STONY BROOK --
SAN DIEGO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
STONY BROOK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Stony Brook)
Stony BrookSTBK (-3.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stony Brook Cover

62.3%

San Diego St Cover

37.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STBK -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STBK)

STBK By 1-6 points

16.9%

STBK By 7-13 points

18.2%

SDSU By 1-6 points

14.5%

SDSU By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
14.89
STONY BROOK
10.51
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
10
STONY BROOK
31
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stony Brook Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San Diego St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stony Brook (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim San Diego St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 STBK @ SDSU 0 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +61.9% more
Stony Brook: 1.4 vs San Diego State: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +45.6% more
San Diego State: 21.0 vs Stony Brook: 14.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.2% more
San Diego State: 134.6 vs Stony Brook: 101.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.9% more
San Diego State: 348.2 vs Stony Brook: 274.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 14.9 0
SDSU Score 10.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 14.4 24.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 134.6 / 101.1 228.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 348.2 / 274.5 464.0 / 95.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
--
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK
--
SDSU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
--
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
STBK
SDSU
STBK
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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