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IDAHO STATE

IDAHO STIDST

0-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 4:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

0-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Collin Lewis

#97 | Defensive Lineman
@
Quandarius Keyes
KEY GAME

Quandarius Keyes

#5 | Defensive Back
Player
Collin Lewis None-None
Quandarius Keyes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IDAHO ST
100%
📊
UNLV
0%
IDAHO ST --
UNLV --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.5
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.5 points (UNLV)
Idaho StIDST (-3.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Idaho St Cover

11.9%

UNLV Cover

88.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -16.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

IDST By 1-6 points

6.2%

IDST By 7-13 points

3.4%

UNLV By 1-6 points

11.1%

UNLV By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
13.58
IDAHO STATE
30.1
UNLV
Simulated Score
10
IDAHO STATE
48
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UNLV Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.5
B
Sim UNLV (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.7
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 IDST @ UNLV 31 - 38
Aug 27, 2022 IDST @ UNLV 21 - 52
Sep 26, 2015 IDST @ UNLV 8 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +172.5% more
UNLV: 215.4 vs Idaho State: 79.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
UNLV: 369.1 vs Idaho State: 334.6
Turnovers (L5) +71.4% more
Idaho State: 2.1 vs UNLV: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +15.9% more
Idaho State: 21.2 vs UNLV: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 13.6 31
UNLV Score 30.1 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 21.2 25.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 215.4 / 79.0 300.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 369.1 / 334.6 532.0 / 555.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
--
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
--
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
--
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
IDST
UNLV
IDST
ML
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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