SAM HOUSTON
SAM HOUSTONSHSU
0-0 | Road
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN KYWKU
0-0 | Home
41
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jace Arnold
#9 | Safety@
KEY GAME
Braxton Myers
#14 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jace Arnold | None-None |
| Braxton Myers | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
100%
WESTERN KY
0%
SAM HOUSTON
--
WESTERN KY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Western Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)
SHSU By 1-6 points
13.9%
SHSU By 7-13 points
10.8%
WKU By 1-6 points
16.8%
WKU By 7-13 points
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
14.5
SAM HOUSTON
Western Kentucky
19.98
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
27
SAM HOUSTON
Western Kentucky
34
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Western KY
Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim
Western KY
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Western KY (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
B
Sim
Western KY (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 34.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2025
SHSU @ WKU
24 - 41
Oct 16, 2024
WKU @ SHSU
31 - 14
Nov 18, 2023
SHSU @ WKU
23 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+131.0% more
Western Kentucky: 2.2
vs
Sam Houston: 0.9
Total Yards (L5)
+8.1% more
Western Kentucky: 326.7
vs
Sam Houston: 302.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+41.1% more
Sam Houston: 125.3
vs
Western Kentucky: 73.8
Time of Possession (L5)
+8.0% more
Sam Houston: 0.5
vs
Western Kentucky: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
14.5
24
WKU Score
20.0
41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.2 / 16.8
26.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards
73.8 / 125.3
105.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.58 / 0.14
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
326.7 / 302.4
506.0 / 382.0
Turnovers
2.2 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: +7.6
WKU
Advantage
2-4-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -13.0
ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: +7.6
WKU
3-3-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -13.0
ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -3.7
WKU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
SHSU
WKU
SHSU
ML
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
67%
4-2
100%
5-0
ATS
33%
2-4
60%
3-2
33%
2-4
20%
1-4
TTL
50%
3-3
100%
5-0
50%
3-3
60%
3-2
