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BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 5:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

0-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Nico Gramatica None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
0%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
100%
BOISE ST --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Boise State)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

60.3%

South Florida Cover

39.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BOIS -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-6 points

17.0%

BOIS By 7-13 points

17.8%

USF By 1-6 points

14.9%

USF By 7-13 points

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
39.3
BOISE STATE
35.66
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
20
BOISE STATE
34
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boise St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boise St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.6
C
Sim South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 BOIS @ USF 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.7% more
Boise State: 1.7 vs South Florida: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Boise State: 185.8 vs South Florida: 159.1
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
Boise State: 0.6 vs South Florida: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
Boise State: 22.7 vs South Florida: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 39.3 7
USF Score 35.7 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 22.7 15.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 159.1 / 185.8 117.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 427.7 / 414.2 372.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
BOIS
USF
BOIS
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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