Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ Penn State NEV @ PSU

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

0-0  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

0-0  |  Home

46
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Matthew Parker
KEY GAME

Matthew Parker

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Matthew Parker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
100%
📊
PENN STATE
0%
NEVADA --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.9
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.9 points (Penn State)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

8.9%

Penn State Cover

91.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -18.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

NEV By 1-6 points

4.8%

NEV By 7-13 points

2.5%

PSU By 1-6 points

9.4%

PSU By 7-13 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
18.16
NEVADA
37.03
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
17
NEVADA
38
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.9
C
Sim Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 NEV @ PSU 11 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +98.2% more
Penn State: 210.9 vs Nevada: 106.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Penn State: 0.4 vs Nevada: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +35.2% more
Nevada: 1.6 vs Penn State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 18.2 11
PSU Score 37.0 46
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.0 25.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 210.9 / 106.4 135.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 382.1 / 364.4 438.0 / 203.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
PSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
NEV
PSU
NEV
ML
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Penn State's Second Straight Loss Exposes Alarming Statistical T…
yahoo 5 days, 12 hours ago
Northwestern Thrashes Penn State 34-13 in New Ryan Field Debut: …
usatoday 5 days, 18 hours ago
Sportswriter's Near-Firing Over Halftime Complaint Still Resonat…
marshallnewsmessenger 6 days, 11 hours ago