Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Dakota @ Iowa State SDAK @ ISU

SOUTH DAKOTA

SOUTH DAKOTASDAK

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

1-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Jaylen Boehm-Peterson
KEY GAME

Jaylen Boehm-Peterson

#4 | Defensive Back
@
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Jaylen Boehm-Peterson None-None
Kyle Konrardy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH DAKOTA
100%
📊
IOWA STATE
0%
SOUTH DAKOTA --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Iowa State)
South DakotaSDAK (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Dakota Cover

31.4%

Iowa State Cover

68.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

SDAK By 1-6 points

13.0%

SDAK By 7-13 points

9.8%

ISU By 1-6 points

16.5%

ISU By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16.21
SOUTH DAKOTA
22.99
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
10
SOUTH DAKOTA
42
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
C
Sim Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 SDAK @ ISU 7 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +96.0% more
Iowa State: 1.4 vs South Dakota: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +48.2% more
Iowa State: 21.9 vs South Dakota: 14.8
Total Yards (L5) +40.5% more
Iowa State: 362.8 vs South Dakota: 258.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.8% more
Iowa State: 140.5 vs South Dakota: 110.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDAK Score 16.2 7
ISU Score 23.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 14.8 28.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 140.5 / 110.8 223.0 / 83.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.9 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 362.8 / 258.2 529.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDAK
--
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDAK
--
ISU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SDAK
--
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
SDAK
ISU
SDAK
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
75% 3-1-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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