Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Montana St @ Oregon MTST @ ORE

MONTANA STATE

MONTANA STMTST

0-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 4:00 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

0-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Colby Frokjer
KEY GAME

Colby Frokjer

#30 | Punter
@
Bear Alexander
KEY GAME

Bear Alexander

#1 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Colby Frokjer None-None
Bear Alexander None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MONTANA ST
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
MONTANA ST --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.7
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.7 points (Oregon)
Montana StMTST (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Montana St Cover

20.2%

Oregon Cover

79.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -11.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

MTST By 1-6 points

9.5%

MTST By 7-13 points

6.1%

ORE By 1-6 points

14.3%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
22.29
MONTANA STATE
33.96
OREGON
Simulated Score
10
MONTANA STATE
55
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.7
C
Sim Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 MTST @ ORE 13 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Oregon: 0.5 vs Montana State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
Oregon: 20.8 vs Montana State: 18.5
Turnovers (L5) +77.6% more
Montana State: 1.7 vs Oregon: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.7% more
Montana State: 212.8 vs Oregon: 115.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 22.3 13
ORE Score 34.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 18.5 29.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 115.5 / 212.8 253.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.7 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 385.9 / 376.5 506.0 / 244.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
--
ORE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
--
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
--
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MTST
ORE
MTST
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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