Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ Texas A&M UTSA @ TA&M

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

0-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

0-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Michael Petro
KEY GAME

Michael Petro

#92 | Place kicker
@
Dezz Ricks
KEY GAME

Dezz Ricks

#2 | Cornerback
Player
Michael Petro None-None
Dezz Ricks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
100%
📊
TEXAS A&M
0%
UTSA --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.8
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.8 points (Texas A&M)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

6.9%

Texas A&M Cover

93.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -20.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

UTSA By 1-6 points

3.9%

UTSA By 7-13 points

1.9%

TA&M By 1-6 points

8.0%

TA&M By 7-13 points

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27.07
UTSA
47.83
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
17
UTSA
38
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.8
C
Sim Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 74.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UTSA @ TA&M 24 - 42
Nov 2, 2019 UTSA @ TA&M 14 - 45
Nov 19, 2016 UTSA @ TA&M 10 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.0% more
UTSA: 212.1 vs Texas A&M: 154.9
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
UTSA: 478.0 vs Texas A&M: 402.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 27.1 24
TA&M Score 47.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 21.4 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 154.9 / 212.1 108.0 / 203.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 402.2 / 478.0 399.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
UTSA
TA&M
UTSA
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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