Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Long Island @ Florida LIU @ FLA

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

LONG ISLANDLIU

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

0-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Jaylin Lewis
KEY GAME

Jaylin Lewis

#28 | Linebacker
@
J'Vari Flowers
KEY GAME

J'Vari Flowers

#6 | Cornerback
Player
Jaylin Lewis None-None
J'Vari Flowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LONG ISLAND
100%
📊
FLORIDA
0%
LONG ISLAND --
FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.3
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.3 points (Florida)
Long IslandLIU (-3.5) 0 FloridaFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Long Island Cover

20.9%

Florida Cover

79.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FLA -11.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

LIU By 1-6 points

9.8%

LIU By 7-13 points

6.3%

FLA By 1-6 points

14.5%

FLA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10.23
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
21.57
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
10
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
48
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.3
C
Sim Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 LIU @ FLA 0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +147.3% more
Florida: 194.6 vs Long Island University: 78.7
Total Yards (L5) +127.8% more
Florida: 411.0 vs Long Island University: 180.4
First Downs (L5) +86.5% more
Florida: 20.3 vs Long Island University: 10.9
Turnovers (L5) +48.0% more
Florida: 1.4 vs Long Island University: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIU Score 10.2 0
FLA Score 21.6 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 10.9 28.0 / 2.0
Rushing Yards 194.6 / 78.7 200.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.54 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 411.0 / 180.4 451.0 / 86.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIU
--
FLA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIU
--
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIU
--
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
LIU
FLA
LIU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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