Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Michigan UNM @ MICH

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

0-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Elijah Brody
KEY GAME

Elijah Brody

#19 | Defensive End
@
Hudson Hollenbeck
KEY GAME

Hudson Hollenbeck

#90 | Punter
Player
Elijah Brody None-None
Hudson Hollenbeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
100%
📊
MICHIGAN
0%
NEW MEXICO --
MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Michigan)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

33.7%

Michigan Cover

66.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

UNM By 1-6 points

13.6%

UNM By 7-13 points

10.5%

MICH By 1-6 points

16.7%

MICH By 7-13 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
24.67
NEW MEXICO
30.55
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
10
NEW MEXICO
42
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
C
Sim Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UNM @ MICH 17 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.2% more
Michigan: 1.2 vs New Mexico: 1.1
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Michigan: 0.6 vs New Mexico: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.7% more
New Mexico: 308.9 vs Michigan: 139.9
Total Yards (L5) +50.0% more
New Mexico: 502.0 vs Michigan: 250.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 24.7 17
MICH Score 30.6 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 26.3 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 139.9 / 308.9 201.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 250.9 / 502.0 452.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
UNM
MICH
UNM
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Stanford's Davis Warren Set to Challenge Notre Dame's Elite Defe…
yahoo 1 day, 12 hours ago
Michigan's $12.5M Gamble on Bryce Underwood: No Return Yet
sportingnews 2 days ago
Michigan Tight End Zack Marshall Issues Apology for Leaked Messa…
yahoo 2 days ago
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 6 hours ago
Falcons Soar Past Saints in Prime-Time Blowout: Penix, Robinson …
si 2 days, 19 hours ago