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NORTHERN ARIZONA

N ARIZONANAU

0-0  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

0-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jerry Johnson III
KEY GAME

Jerry Johnson III

#13 | Safety
@
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
Player
Jerry Johnson III None-None
Kanyon Floyd None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ARIZONA
100%
📊
ARIZONA ST
0%
N ARIZONA --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.7
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.7 points (Arizona State)
N ArizonaNAU (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Arizona Cover

1.7%

Arizona St Cover

98.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU -29.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

NAU By 1-6 points

1.1%

NAU By 7-13 points

0.4%

ASU By 1-6 points

3.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.56
NORTHERN ARIZONA
33.3
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
10
NORTHERN ARIZONA
45
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.7
C
Sim Arizona St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 NAU @ ASU 19 - 38
Sep 1, 2022 NAU @ ASU 3 - 40
Sep 3, 2016 NAU @ ASU 13 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +153.1% more
Arizona State: 213.7 vs Northern Arizona: 84.5
Total Yards (L5) +96.7% more
Arizona State: 483.6 vs Northern Arizona: 245.8
First Downs (L5) +57.1% more
Arizona State: 23.4 vs Northern Arizona: 14.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Arizona State: 0.4 vs Northern Arizona: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 3.6 19
ASU Score 33.3 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 14.9 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 213.7 / 84.5 201.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 483.6 / 245.8 458.0 / 331.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
--
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
--
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
--
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
NAU
ASU
NAU
ML
50% 2-2
100% 2-0
50% 2-2
100% 2-0
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-2
0% 0-4
0% 0-2
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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