Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Bengals IND @ CIN

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

0-2  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

1-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
50%
📊
BENGALS
50%
COLTS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Cincinnati)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 BengalsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

32.4%

Bengals Cover

67.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

IND By 1-6 points

13.3%

IND By 7-13 points

10.1%

CIN By 1-6 points

16.6%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24.26
INDIANAPOLIS
30.67
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
27
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.4
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 IND @ CIN 41 - 14
Dec 10, 2023 IND @ CIN 14 - 34
Oct 18, 2020 CIN @ IND 27 - 31
Sep 9, 2018 CIN @ IND 34 - 23
Oct 29, 2017 IND @ CIN 23 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +49.0% more
Cincinnati: 309.3 vs Indianapolis: 207.5
First Downs (L5) +30.9% more
Cincinnati: 26.5 vs Indianapolis: 20.2
Total Yards (L5) +8.6% more
Cincinnati: 413.7 vs Indianapolis: 380.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Indianapolis: 173.3 vs Cincinnati: 104.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 24.3 41
CIN Score 30.7 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
IND
CIN
IND
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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