Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Lions HOU @ DET

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

1-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

1-2  |  Home

7
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
67%
📊
LIONS
33%
TEXANS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Detroit)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

40.3%

Lions Cover

59.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

12.6%

DET By 1-6 points

17.0%

DET By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
25.09
HOUSTON
28.54
DETROIT
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
33% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 HOU @ DET 26 - 7
Nov 10, 2024 DET @ HOU 26 - 23
Nov 26, 2020 HOU @ DET 41 - 25
Oct 30, 2016 DET @ HOU 13 - 20
Nov 22, 2012 HOU @ DET 34 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +45.9% more
Detroit: 25.2 vs Houston: 17.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.4% more
Detroit: 282.8 vs Houston: 204.3
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Detroit: 431.1 vs Houston: 341.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.1% more
Detroit: 6.3 vs Houston: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 25.1 26
DET Score 28.5 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
DET Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
67% 2-1-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 6 hours, 31 minutes ago
Oregon Ducks Prepare for UCLA Without Star Quarterback Dante Moo…
foxnews 12 hours, 53 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb's Record-Setting Day Sparks Cowboys' Offensive Surge
yardbarker 18 hours, 56 minutes ago
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
yardbarker 18 hours, 57 minutes ago
Cardinals Week 5 Injury Report: Jeremiyah Love Limited; Paris Jo…
yahoo 19 hours, 3 minutes ago