Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Dolphins JAX @ MIA

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

0-1-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

1-0-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Matt Dickerson
KEY GAME

Matt Dickerson

#93 | Defensive End
@
AJ Henning
KEY GAME

AJ Henning

#88 | Wide Receiver
Player
Matt Dickerson None-None
AJ Henning None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
50%
📊
DOLPHINS
50%
JAGUARS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

50.1%

Dolphins Cover

49.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

16.5%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.4%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.4%

MIA By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
20.99
JACKSONVILLE
20.96
MIAMI
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
23
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 JAX @ MIA 6 - 14
Sep 8, 2024 JAX @ MIA 17 - 20
Oct 17, 2021 MIA @ JAX 20 - 23
Sep 24, 2020 MIA @ JAX 31 - 13
Dec 23, 2018 JAX @ MIA 17 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.6% more
Jacksonville: 1.3 vs Miami: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Jacksonville: 99.3 vs Miami: 88.6
First Downs (L5) +14.8% more
Miami: 20.6 vs Jacksonville: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 21.0 6
MIA Score 21.0 14
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
JAX
MIA
JAX
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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