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BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

0-2  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

2-0  |  Home

19
Key Game
Greg Gaines
KEY GAME

Greg Gaines

#97 | Defensive Tackle
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Greg Gaines None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
50%
📊
BUCCANEERS
50%
BILLS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Tampa Bay)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

37.3%

Buccaneers Cover

62.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BUF By 1-6 points

14.4%

BUF By 7-13 points

11.6%

TB By 1-6 points

16.9%

TB By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
28.71
BUFFALO
33.26
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 TB @ BUF 32 - 44
Aug 23, 2025 BUF @ TB 23 - 19
Oct 26, 2023 TB @ BUF 18 - 24
Dec 12, 2021 BUF @ TB 27 - 33
Oct 22, 2017 TB @ BUF 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +109.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.2 vs Buffalo: 0.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.1% more
Tampa Bay: 266.2 vs Buffalo: 192.8
Total Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Tampa Bay: 444.5 vs Buffalo: 349.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.0% more
Tampa Bay: 6.6 vs Buffalo: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 28.7 23
TB Score 33.3 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BUF
TB
BUF
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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