BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
68-59 | Road
6
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
69-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.10 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.10 Ldr
ERA
2.88
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
49%
YANKEES
51%
RED SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.0%
NYY By 1-2 runs
14.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
6.55
BOSTON
New York
4.81
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.6% more
Boston: 3.9
vs
New York: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+352.0% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Boston: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+130.9% more
New York: 24.9
vs
Boston: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
6.6
6
NYY Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
4.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.8 / 7.4
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
4.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 9.1
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
24.9 / 10.8
13.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.9
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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