TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
74-53 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
53-74 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Henry Davis
#32 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.96 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Henry Davis | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.96
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
66%
PIRATES
34%
BLUE JAYS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.35
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
5.14
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
PIT @ TOR
4 - 1
May 23, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 5
May 22, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 6
Aug 20, 2025
TOR @ PIT
1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.692
OPS
▲
.734
152
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+83.3% more
Toronto: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+33.0% more
Toronto: 15.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.3
Errors (L5)
+28.1% more
Toronto: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+21.5% more
Toronto: 4.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
1
PIT Score
5.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.9
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.5
8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 15.3
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.3
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TOR
PIT
TOR
ML
52%
82-77
46%
74-87
52%
85-78
50%
80-80
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
90-71
50%
81-82
49%
79-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
51%
80-76-5
50%
79-78-6
45%
70-85-5
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