Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Phillies SEA @ PHI

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

68-59  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Aug 20 • 1:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

73-53  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Alvarado

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduard Bazardo None-None 2.71 -- 0.2 1
Jose Alvarado None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.71 ERA Ldr 2.57
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
46%
📊
PHILLIES
54%
MARINERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

35.4%

Phillies Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.0%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.2%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
SEATTLE
5.72
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 PHI @ SEA 6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 PHI @ SEA 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 PHI @ SEA 2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025 SEA @ PHI 2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025 SEA @ PHI 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.693
OPS
▲ .724
182 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +143.0% more
Philadelphia: 2.4 vs Seattle: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +63.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.5 vs Seattle: 7.0
Hits (L5) +37.4% more
Philadelphia: 11.3 vs Seattle: 8.2
Total Bases (L5) +37.3% more
Philadelphia: 19.8 vs Seattle: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.2 2
PHI Score 5.7 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.3 / 8.2 20.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 11.5 / 7.0 17.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 19.8 / 14.4 32.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.8 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SEA
PHI
SEA
ML
59% 97-67
50% 81-81
49% 80-84
52% 85-77
ATS
65% 107-57
60% 98-64
51% 83-81
59% 95-67
TTL
57% 88-67-9
56% 85-67-10
51% 78-76-9
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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