CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
64-61 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
61-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.83 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.83 Ldr
ERA
4.40
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
53%
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
GUARDIANS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.94
CLEVELAND
Arizona
5.37
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
ARI @ CLE
0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
ARI @ CLE
12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
ARI @ CLE
4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025
CLE @ ARI
2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025
CLE @ ARI
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+34.5% more
Arizona: 15.2
vs
Cleveland: 11.3
Hits (L5)
+25.4% more
Arizona: 8.8
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.9
2
ARI Score
5.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.0
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 7.8
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 11.3
13.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.2
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CLE
ARI
CLE
ML
54%
87-74
54%
87-75
54%
86-74
49%
80-83
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
93-69
56%
89-71
58%
95-68
TTL
52%
80-73-8
56%
89-71-2
49%
73-77-9
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox