ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
63-64 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
59-67 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | None-None | 5.17 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.17
ERA
Ldr 3.45
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
53%
MARLINS
47%
CARDINALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.0%
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.93
ST. LOUIS
Miami
3.64
MIAMI
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
MIA @ STL
1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
MIA @ STL
5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026
MIA @ STL
4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026
STL @ MIA
1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
STL @ MIA
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.727
167
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+31.5% more
St. Louis: 9.9
vs
Miami: 6.8
Errors (L5)
+28.8% more
St. Louis: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+20.1% more
St. Louis: 3.5
vs
Miami: 2.8
Total Bases (L5)
+8.1% more
St. Louis: 13.4
vs
Miami: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.9
2
MIA Score
3.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.9
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.9
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 13.4
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.5
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STL
MIA
STL
ML
48%
78-84
53%
85-74
55%
88-72
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
89-70
54%
86-74
53%
85-76
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
68-81-10
53%
82-73-5
50%
76-75-10
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