NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
68-57 | Road
6
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
61-65 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.66 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 4.30 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.66 Ldr
ERA
4.30
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
56%
RAYS
44%
YANKEES
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
12.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.22
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
1.041
▲
OPS
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.5% more
New York: 3.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+61.7% more
New York: 25.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.7
Errors (L5)
+61.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+49.6% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.2
6
TB Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 11.7
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 3.9
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.0
13.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 25.3
11.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.9
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYY
TB
NYY
ML
58%
95-68
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-66
55%
90-73
53%
86-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-10
53%
82-72-7
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