SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
68-58 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
72-53 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.27 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.27
ERA
Ldr 1.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
46%
PHILLIES
54%
MARINERS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
SEA By 1-2 runs
14.9%
SEA By 3-4 runs
9.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.11
SEATTLE
Philadelphia
5.63
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PHI @ SEA
6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
PHI @ SEA
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
PHI @ SEA
2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025
SEA @ PHI
2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025
SEA @ PHI
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.693
OPS
▲
.724
182
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+52.2% more
Philadelphia: 13.4
vs
Seattle: 8.8
Home Runs (L5)
+45.8% more
Philadelphia: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+38.7% more
Philadelphia: 21.6
vs
Seattle: 15.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.7% more
Philadelphia: 9.7
vs
Seattle: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.1
4
PHI Score
5.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
13.4 / 8.8
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.4
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.5
15.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
21.6 / 15.6
16.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SEA
PHI
SEA
ML
59%
97-67
50%
81-81
49%
80-84
52%
85-77
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
98-64
51%
83-81
59%
95-67
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-76-9
53%
81-71-10
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