TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
62-64 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
64-61 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Winn | None-None | 1.45 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Seth Lugo | None-None | 3.73 | -- | 6.1 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.45 Ldr
ERA
3.73
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
48%
ROYALS
52%
RANGERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TEX By 1-2 runs
13.5%
TEX By 3-4 runs
7.7%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.61
TEXAS
Kansas City
5.64
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
TEX @ KC
4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
TEX @ KC
6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
TEX @ KC
3 - 5
May 31, 2026
KC @ TEX
3 - 6
May 30, 2026
KC @ TEX
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.718
183
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+68.0% more
Kansas City: 2.1
vs
Texas: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Kansas City: 0.3
vs
Texas: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.7% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Texas: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Kansas City: 40.2%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.6
2
KC Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 10.0
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.3
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.5
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 15.5
16.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TEX
KC
TEX
ML
55%
89-72
53%
86-76
56%
90-70
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
78-70-14
54%
83-70-7
55%
81-66-14
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