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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

66-60  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Aug 19 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

60-65  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
@
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Greene None-None 2.63 -- 6.1 12
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.63 ERA --
-- WHIP --
6.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
12 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
📊
ANGELS
46%
REDS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

57.4%

Angels Cover

42.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.7%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.94
CINCINNATI
4.19
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 LAA @ CIN 9 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 LAA @ CIN 3 - 7
Apr 10, 2026 LAA @ CIN 10 - 2
Aug 20, 2025 CIN @ LAA 1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025 CIN @ LAA 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.699 ▲
OPS
.679
213 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +67.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +27.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.4% more
Cincinnati: 15.3 vs Los Angeles: 13.1
Hits (L5) +13.5% more
Cincinnati: 9.5 vs Los Angeles: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.9 6
LAA Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.5 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.5 6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 15.3 17.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.7 / 3.3 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
CIN
LAA
CIN
ML
59% 96-66
55% 88-71
55% 89-73
49% 79-81
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 86-73
51% 82-80
50% 80-80
TTL
53% 83-74-5
53% 81-73-5
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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