CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
64-60 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
60-66 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 4.41 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 6.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.41 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
GUARDIANS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.33
CLEVELAND
Arizona
5.51
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
ARI @ CLE
0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
ARI @ CLE
12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
ARI @ CLE
4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025
CLE @ ARI
2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025
CLE @ ARI
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+33.3% more
Arizona: 8.7
vs
Cleveland: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+26.0% more
Arizona: 13.8
vs
Cleveland: 10.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+2.4%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.3
5
ARI Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 6.5
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.7 / 8.8
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 10.9
18.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.4 / 3.9
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CLE
ARI
CLE
ML
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
56%
89-71
59%
95-67
TTL
52%
80-73-8
55%
88-71-2
49%
73-77-9
43%
69-90-2
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