TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
73-52 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
52-73 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.16 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00
ERA
Ldr 2.16
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
66%
PIRATES
34%
BLUE JAYS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.39
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
5.4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
PIT @ TOR
4 - 1
May 23, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 5
May 22, 2026
PIT @ TOR
2 - 6
Aug 20, 2025
TOR @ PIT
1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025
TOR @ PIT
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.692
OPS
▲
.734
152
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+79.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+22.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+4.2%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
2
PIT Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.4
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 6.9
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 18.2
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.1 / 4.4
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TOR
PIT
TOR
ML
52%
82-77
46%
74-87
52%
85-78
50%
80-80
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
90-71
50%
81-82
49%
79-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
51%
80-76-5
50%
79-78-6
45%
70-85-5
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