ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
61-64 | Road
8
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
59-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 2.21 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Eury Perez | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 4.1 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.21 Ldr
ERA
3.48
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
MARLINS
49%
CARDINALS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.69
ST. LOUIS
Miami
4.15
MIAMI
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
MIA @ STL
1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
MIA @ STL
5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026
MIA @ STL
4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026
STL @ MIA
1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
STL @ MIA
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.727
167
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.7% more
Miami: 1.8
vs
St. Louis: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+13.3% more
Miami: 15.6
vs
St. Louis: 13.8
OPS (Season)
+3.6%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.2%
Miami: 40.0%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.7
8
MIA Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.2
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.4
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 13.8
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.4 / 5.5
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STL
MIA
STL
ML
48%
78-84
53%
85-74
55%
88-72
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
89-70
54%
86-74
53%
85-76
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
68-81-10
53%
82-73-5
50%
76-75-10
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