SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
68-57 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
71-53 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | None-None | 3.83 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.83
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
47%
PHILLIES
53%
MARINERS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.9%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.05
SEATTLE
Philadelphia
4.94
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PHI @ SEA
6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
PHI @ SEA
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
PHI @ SEA
2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025
SEA @ PHI
2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025
SEA @ PHI
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.693
OPS
▲
.724
182
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.9%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Seattle: 37.9%
OPS (Season)
+3.1%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Seattle: 23.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.1
7
PHI Score
4.9
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.7
22.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.3
14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 14.4
37.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.0
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SEA
PHI
SEA
ML
59%
97-67
50%
81-81
49%
80-84
52%
85-77
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
98-64
51%
83-81
59%
95-67
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-76-9
53%
81-71-10
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