TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
62-63 | Road
3
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
63-61 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joc Pederson
#3 | Designated Hitter@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.55
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
49%
ROYALS
51%
RANGERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.21
TEXAS
Kansas City
5.3
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 11, 2026
TEX @ KC
4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
TEX @ KC
6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
TEX @ KC
3 - 5
May 31, 2026
KC @ TEX
3 - 6
May 30, 2026
KC @ TEX
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.718
183
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Kansas City: 0.4
vs
Texas: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+17.2% more
Kansas City: 3.4
vs
Texas: 2.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.7% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Texas: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Kansas City: 40.2%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.2
3
KC Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.4
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.9
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.8
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 17.2
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.9
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TEX
KC
TEX
ML
55%
89-72
53%
86-76
56%
90-70
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
78-70-14
54%
83-70-7
55%
81-66-14
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