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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

65-60  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

60-64  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Brady Singer
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Singer

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brady Singer None-None 4.18 -- 6.0 4
Jose Fermin None-None 6.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.18 Ldr ERA 6.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
📊
ANGELS
46%
REDS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

55.2%

Angels Cover

44.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.0%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.79
CINCINNATI
4.27
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 LAA @ CIN 9 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 LAA @ CIN 3 - 7
Apr 10, 2026 LAA @ CIN 10 - 2
Aug 20, 2025 CIN @ LAA 1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025 CIN @ LAA 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.699 ▲
OPS
.679
213 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +84.2% more
Cincinnati: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +27.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.5%
Cincinnati: 39.4% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
OPS (Season) +2.0%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.8 4
LAA Score 4.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.8 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.8 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 12.9 10.0 / 20.0
Walks 5.5 / 3.0 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
CIN
LAA
CIN
ML
59% 96-66
55% 88-71
55% 89-73
49% 79-81
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 86-73
51% 82-80
50% 80-80
TTL
53% 83-74-5
53% 81-73-5
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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