CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
63-60 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
60-65 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Gallen
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.73 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Zac Gallen | None-None | 5.28 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.73 Ldr
ERA
5.28
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
53%
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
GUARDIANS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CLE By 1-2 runs
11.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
6.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.66
CLEVELAND
Arizona
6.21
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
ARI @ CLE
0 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
ARI @ CLE
12 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
ARI @ CLE
4 - 1
Aug 20, 2025
CLE @ ARI
2 - 3
Aug 19, 2025
CLE @ ARI
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+97.0% more
Arizona: 1.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+48.2% more
Arizona: 16.2
vs
Cleveland: 10.9
Hits (L5)
+38.0% more
Arizona: 10.0
vs
Cleveland: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.7
3
ARI Score
6.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 7.3
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.7
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 10.9
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.8
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CLE
ARI
CLE
ML
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
56%
89-71
59%
95-67
TTL
52%
80-73-8
55%
88-71-2
49%
73-77-9
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…