PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
70-53 | Road
11
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
50-73 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.83 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 9.31 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.83 Ldr
ERA
9.31
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
66%
NATIONALS
34%
PHILLIES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
84%
Under 0
16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.2%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.47
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
3.06
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+44.9% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Washington: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.5
11
WSH Score
3.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 7.2
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 10.9
21.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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