ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
55-68 | Road
5
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
63-59 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.01 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.62 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.01
ERA
Ldr 2.62
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
43%
GUARDIANS
57%
BRAVES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
11.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
6.24
ATLANTA
Cleveland
3.46
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
B
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CLE @ ATL
1 - 13
Apr 11, 2026
CLE @ ATL
6 - 0
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
5 - 11
Aug 17, 2025
ATL @ CLE
5 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
ATL @ CLE
10 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.757
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+41.5% more
Atlanta: 10.1
vs
Cleveland: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+39.8% more
Atlanta: 15.6
vs
Cleveland: 9.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.2% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.4% more
Atlanta: 7.8
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
6.2
5
CLE Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.9 / 10.1
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.8
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
9.4 / 15.6
14.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.5
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
ATL
CLE
ATL
ML
54%
87-75
46%
77-90
49%
80-83
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
93-69
57%
96-71
58%
95-68
52%
87-81
TTL
56%
89-71-2
53%
83-73-11
44%
70-90-2
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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