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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

66-57  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

61-63  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 2.98 -- 1.0 --
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.60 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.98 ERA Ldr 1.60
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
54%
📊
CARDINALS
46%
YANKEES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

51.9%

Cardinals Cover

48.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

14.1%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.89
NEW YORK
3.7
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 STL @ NYY 3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026 STL @ NYY 0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026 STL @ NYY 13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025 NYY @ STL 8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025 NYY @ STL 12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
St. Louis STL
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
1.041 ▲
OPS
.691
2
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +50.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +35.0%
New York: 1.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Home Runs (L5) +30.5% more
New York: 2.0 vs St. Louis: 1.4
Slugging Pct (Season) +21.6%
New York: 59.4% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.9 8
STL Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.8 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 10.5 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 17.6 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.2 / 2.8 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYY
STL
NYY
ML
53% 85-74
47% 76-85
52% 84-77
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 89-70
59% 95-66
53% 85-76
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-7
50% 76-75-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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