PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
52-72 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
69-53 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.99 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.23 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.99
ERA
Ldr 2.23
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
36%
CUBS
64%
PIRATES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
28%
Under 0
72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.9%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.2%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.15
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
4.29
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
Chicago: 8.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.5
Hits (L5)
+9.2% more
Chicago: 7.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.6
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.2
3
CHC Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.6
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.5
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 10.9
8.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.6
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …