ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
60-64 | Road
5
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
34-89 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.55 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 4.20 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.55
ERA
Ldr 4.20
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
71%
ROCKIES
29%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.1%
COL By 1-2 runs
14.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.1
ARIZONA
Colorado
3.3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
ARI @ COL
12 - 8
Sep 23, 2026
ARI @ COL
5 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
ARI @ COL
7 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
COL @ ARI
6 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
COL @ ARI
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.720
OPS
▲
.739
166
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.5% more
Colorado: 8.8
vs
Arizona: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+20.5% more
Colorado: 17.8
vs
Arizona: 14.8
Hits (L5)
+14.3% more
Colorado: 9.8
vs
Arizona: 8.5
Home Runs (L5)
+13.4% more
Colorado: 1.5
vs
Arizona: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.1
5
COL Score
3.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 8.5
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 6.2
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 14.8
10.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.7
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ARI
COL
ARI
ML
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
56%
89-71
TTL
60%
93-62-6
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
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