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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

59-64  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sun, Aug 17 • 4:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

56-69  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 6.30 -- 1.0 --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.30 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
53%
📊
ATHLETICS
47%
ANGELS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Athletics)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

34.3%

Athletics Cover

65.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

LAA By 1-2 runs

14.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

8.8%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.21
LOS ANGELES
5.83
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .719
154
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +87.0% more
Athletics: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +44.4% more
Athletics: 11.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +39.8% more
Athletics: 15.3 vs Los Angeles: 10.9
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Athletics: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.2 11
ATH Score 5.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.0 11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.9 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 7.7 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 10.9 23.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.8 / 5.7 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
LAA
ATH
LAA
ML
59% 95-67
59% 96-66
54% 87-74
55% 89-73
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 97-65
50% 81-80
51% 82-80
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 83-74-5
42% 66-90-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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